An Evidence-Based Life

It is important to know what counts as evidence. Evidence is objective and verifiable information that supports the probability of a claim being true or false.

Evidence and Proof

What is the difference between evidence and proof? Proof is that degree of evidence that warrants belief—that is, when the evidence shows that a claim is probably true. Not every degree of evidence qualifies as proof; it becomes proof only when it justifies accepting the claim.

Importance of Evidence

W. K. Clifford asserts a vital principle: “Religious beliefs must be founded on evidence; if they are not so founded, it is wrong to hold them.” (1) If mistaken beliefs can be a source of unhappiness, then how do we correct them? By looking carefully at the evidence for and against them. Living this way grounds us in reality, though truth can carry a bitter edge.

Evidence and Claims

Evidence consists of facts that support or refute a claim—a statement that is either true or false. After a fair evaluation of the evidence, if it shows that a claim is probably true, you should accept the claim and adjust your actions accordingly. This method clears the fog from conviction, fostering clarity over illusion.

Guarding Against Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias tempts us to search for, interpret, and favor information that supports what we already believe, while we unconsciously ignore information that does not. (2) It warps our judgment and entrenches error. To counter it, we must actively look for disconfirming evidence and give it a genuinely open hearing.

Rejecting or Suspending Unsupported Claims

When there is little or no evidence for a claim, you should reject the claim as probably false. That means no longer believing it and no longer acting as if it were true. When there is not enough evidence either way, you should suspend judgment about the claim. This also means withholding belief until the evidence improves. (3)

Benefits of Evidence-Based Living

I am happier and more grounded in reality by living an evidence-based life. This approach offers greater freedom from illusion and a firmer footing in the real. It demands courage, because truth sometimes has a bitter taste, but it also brings the quiet integrity of facing things as they are.

A Simple Epistemology

How do you know that what you believe is true? That question belongs to the field of epistemology—the theory of knowledge.

I don’t think we can know very much for certain, and we must give up that impossible search. Yet we can still discover how probable a truth claim is.

We can make this complex issue simple. You can tell whether a claim is probably true by applying the three C’s: correspondence, consistency, and consequences.

– Correspondence means the claim aligns with reality. If what you claim matches reality, it is true; if it doesn’t, it is false. The key question is how to tell whether your belief matches reality. The answer lies in objective and verifiable evidence for or against the belief—so correspondence is about the belief’s accord with available evidence.
– Consistency refers to the harmony of the belief with your wider worldview. Contradiction signals that something is wrong—either the belief is false or an element of your worldview needs correction.
– Consequences are the practical fruits of accepting a claim as true. If living the belief produces good results, it is likely sound; if it produces harm or distortion, it is probably false.

This is a very simple epistemology—only an outline for a larger exploration of how we determine truth, test belief, and live faithfully to what reason and evidence reveal.

Endnotes

(1) W. K. Clifford, “The Ethics of Belief,” in Lectures and Essays (London: Macmillan, 1879), 177.
(2) Raymond Nickerson, “Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises,” Review of General Psychology 2, no. 2 (1998): 175–220.
(3) David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (London: A. Millar, 1748), Section X.